The economy and our future

I think this is a subject that needs it's own thread. I am going to copy some things I posted in another thread to get us rolling.

Here are some facts. The Saudis are cutting their oil production by 1 million barrels. Fuel costs are going up dramatically. Silver and gold are increasing in price, silver has doubled in value in one years time. The stock market is tumbling. The governemt is printing money as fast as they can which is having the effect of causing a loss of faith in the dollar. China and other countries are stocking up on silver and gold and they are getting out of the dollar as an investment currency. Interest rates are about to be raised which means that variable rate lons will take a bigger chunk of peoples paychecks. Federal, state, county, city and school budgets are under a huge strain and taxes will be going up. Food prices are rising across the board. Clothing costs ar going up. Simple fact, we are headed for an even bigger crash than before, this is going to be major.

After I posted that in the other thread, a report came out statiing that Standard & Poors has downgraded the US debt to a negative status. These ratings are not taken lightly and are not changed easily. Not good news.

Driving on Main Street in hays last night, I noticed that Meckenstocks are now promoting gold and silver... hmmmm, I wonder why..... Problem is, the time to have bought gold and silver was 5 - 10 years back when silver was 10 bucks an ounce and gold was 400 bucks. Guess thats why Warren Buffet bought millions of ounces of silver and took delivery of the metal in his private vaults. I think he bought when silver was abou 5 bucks an ounce. Talk about a profit !!!

The recent run-up of commodity prices so far looks like a repeat of 2008. And people have argued that high oil and food prices were what finally tipped the balance leading to the big crash in October 2008.

To me, the question is: Is that going to happen again? I don't know. But I DO know that lots of state and local governments are doing lots of lay-offs... and unemployment payments are finally running out for lots of people. Damn near three years since the initial crash, and only now are people on the government dole starting to feel the squeeze.

But on the other hand, certain segments of the economy are really coming back. Quite a few manufacturers in Wichita are hiring again. We're hiring and expanding left and right where I work (partially a function of high oil prices- since we sell to lots of big oil companies).

My personal guess is that we're not headding for another Big Crash- at least not for a few years. I think we're in a period of stagnation and restructuring that's going to continue for some time. The more vulnerable people in our economy (those with shitty mortgages, unstable jobs, etc.) have already taken a big hit- and they don't have too far to fall now. Those of us left standing are relatively stable. So I don't think this latest bout of commodity price increases (call it inflation if you want) is going to have the same effect it had in 2008... unless it gets A LOT worse. I expect to see 1970's-style StagFlation.

And in this sort of economy, folks who are skilled and mobile are in a much better position to weather the storm than folks who are unskilled and tied to a single location. But so far- as was pointed out in EP's other thread- Hays has actually benefited from high commodity prices, seeings how ya'll have quite a bit of farming and oil in your local economy. I think ya'll are in a good place to hunker down and weather the storm.

I think we are in a little better spot to live due to the oil in the area. One thing that can even kick us in the butt here is lack of rain. If the crops don't grow and ya can't feed the cattle, it won't matter what the price is.

I do feel there was a much deeper issue in the the previous crash than that price of oil and food prices. Naked short selling in the stock market is what created the crash. I don't feel the full effects of that have come home to roost yet either. It has only been delayed by the Fed printing cash like there is no tomorrow. The fact remains that stocks that many folks think they own are really phantom stocks and it will be like a big game of musical chairs, when the music stops there won't be near enough chairs for eveyone playing. So unless you actually PHYSICALLY POSESS THE ACTUAL STOCK CERTIFICATES of the stocks you are invested in, your position is at risk no matter what you broker tells you.

What is naked shorting? It means people have sold stocks that they DO NOT OWN AND WILL NOT BE DELIVERING but they are taking the money and some will not be actually getting a stock but instead an IOU that will never be paid off.

Check out this site and look up videos about naked short selling on youtube for more in depth info


More information about Naked Short Selling

I agree with you on several points. IMO, government policy doesn't reflect any real lessons-learned from the 2008 crash. We're plenty vulnerable to similar problems in the future.

That's a function of the fact that our government is bought and paid for by the banks and wall st. But it's pretty much always been that way... and we've always managed to get by. So while my predictions of the future aren't exactly rosy... I don't reckon the sky is falling either.

This country has seen much MUCH worse times than what we're seeing now. And while there's a real lack of transparency in the markets (naked short-selling, off-market trades, and the like)- we also have an unprecedented level of publicly available info via the internet. It's a brave new world, and it's kinda scary. But if all you're seeing is gloom and doom, then you ain't looking at the big picture IMO.

Some say that the U.S. is a financial empire- analogous to Britain's former 'real' empire. The Brits experienced a protracted decline over several decades. It was painful, but not the end of the world by a long shot. They're STILL a world financial center even though the pound is no longer the world's reserve currency. There are worse fates to suffer.

I see the current financial system as being set up to benefit those that control it and can afford to buy the lawmakers votes. I am not all doom and gloom but I will not be afraid to tell call 'em like I see 'em. We need to look at reality and make steps to strengthen our economy. The term transperency is just another word that is being used by as a talking point and unfortuneately, nothing is being done to make it have real meaning.

I think to fix a lot of the problems a few things we need to do are as follows. Take the speculators out of the market. Day traders need to get a real job and not play hot potato with stocks. Commodities traders are a problem. There should not be any way to sell a product that you don't own or buy a product you aren't going to take delivery of. Period.
We need to make thing here again. America became great when were a manufacturing machine making quality products. If a product is made overseas by a company that moved offshore to avoid taxes, wages and environemntal rules just to make a product cheaper while still selling it at the price they made when they produced it here, then tax the hell out of it and encourage them to make it locally. We need to end all big tax breaks for those poor corporations that pay massive bonuses. If everyone paid their share of taxes ( for example GE), the burden on the woking folks would be less and they could afford to live a little better life. Make the market rules strong and enforce them. End naked short selling and strongly regulate both short and long positions as well as strict rules and massive fines. Once a trader is found to be cheating, jail them for life. Seems like these rats get caught, jailed and then keep coming back after release.

Elected officials should be only allowed 2 terms and no more. They should get the same healthcare the rest of us do. They should not get a lifetime retirement package of money and benefits. Lobbyists should be done away with, the only folks that should be talking to elected officials are the folks that elected them.

I am sure I will think of more, but this would be a good start.

Hey, Luke, where do you stand on raising the debt ceiling?

Can you (or anyone, without looking it up) tell me who said the following?

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. … Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."

Hint: It wasn't Ron Paul.

I agree with you on several points, Luke- but like I said earlier: our government is bought and paid for. Several of your suggestions- particularly securities & exchange regulations- run afoul of Wall Street interests who play guys like EP like a fiddle. Wall Street's quest for ever-higher returns (regardless of whether or not anything 'real' is being produced) is a big component of how we got into our current mess. And the fact is that over 2 1/2 years after the crash, no meaningful regulations have been passed that would help avoid the same type of bubble/crash.

Hell, we bailed out the very banks who caused it... and that was a bi-partisan effort. Not only that, but Corporate America has their Tea Party stooges screaming for even more deregulation- when that's exactly what brought us to this point (you know- like the repeal of the Glass-Steagull act).

That should tell you who's running the show, and who our elected officials represent. It ain't you and me.

My advice in the short-term is to invest with Goldman Sachs.

Bighead wrote:

Several of your suggestions- particularly securities & exchange regulations- run afoul of Wall Street interests who play guys like EP like a fiddle.

Yeah, right. By the way, not all of us are unhappy that the price of gold is skyrocketing. Some of us are pretty happy.

The Other One wrote:

Hey, Luke, where do you stand on raising the debt ceiling?

Can you (or anyone, without looking it up) tell me who said the following?

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. … Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."

Hint: It wasn't Ron Paul.

I'm pretty sure that would be Obama.

Now are you gonna point out similarly glaring hypocrisies among your GOP masters?

I didn't think so.

I am not at all in favor of raising the debt ceiling. You can't spend your way out of debt no matter how hard you try. The only way is to cutback and save and increase your income by working and producing a product or performing a service. As for your quote, I had no clue. I do not listen to a lot of fluff speeches made by politicians. I watch what they do and judge them by their actions.

I agree with The Other One about seeing the price of metals going up, just wish I had bought a whole lot more when it was 6-7 bucks an ounce or even ten. I think at the rate we are going it will be cheaper to wipe your butt with a twenty dollar bill than it will be to use TP.
I think silver coinage will be a handy thing to have.

WE may not be able to raise the debt ceiling even if we wanted to. Well, I guess we could raise it in spirit but the money may not be available to make it possible if China stops playing the game.

a possible scenario ???

Don't raise the debt ceiling. Let the Government shut down. It's all a shell game. Let The people realize that the world will not end.