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LukeTHr
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PostSubject: upcoming storm possibilities   Thu Mar 19, 2009 3:25 pm

I was reading some predictions on a storm chasers forum and found this prediction. Maybe we will get some rain yet.....

Quote :
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Wolfson
A vigorous early season closed system stacked from the surface clear up to 200Mb over eastern CO with a stretched advection tongue wrapping around through NE screams cold-core for me. Though the timing is a bit uncertain the feature has been pretty consistent through recent runs.

If I were able, Sunday night would find me in one of Tucumcari's cheap motel rooms, rising early and planning on running ahead of the vort max through central-western KS to Kearney, NE.

I think you are still on the right track, David. What past event the GFS "looks like" seems to change with each successive run. However, the 03/19/09 12Z run is almost a dead ringer for the 10 April 2005 event in Kansas.

Per Mr. Davies, this was a classic cold core low...which produced several tornadoes in a narrow s-n corridor of north central/northwest KS. If this GFS run was a perfect forecast, I would position myself near Hays, KS Monday morning and be prepared to run north or even northwest as the shallow supercells developed along the occluded front. Pretty good chance to put a few more notches in your belt.
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Degeneration X
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 4:25 pm

Sounds like some severe weather forcasted later in the weekend. I just wish it would rain and nothing severe.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 4:30 pm

From the NOAA site:
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2009


Quote :

...DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE EVENT REMAINS APPARENT FOR MON. MAR. 23 /DAY 5/...WITH
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL LOW SHIFTING
EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIRLY BROAD/RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SURFACE CYCLONE LIKELY CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SETUP APPEARS TO
FAVOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE SOMEWHAT MERIDIONAL -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WIND FIELD WILL BE PLENTY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS -- AND THUS ATTM IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS LIKELY.
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slickjay12
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 5:20 pm

Yep i am ready the TIT is loaded and I am off on Monday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 cheers cheers
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 5:31 pm

LukeTHr wrote:
I was reading some predictions on a storm chasers forum and found this prediction. Maybe we will get some rain yet.....

Quote :
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Wolfson
A vigorous early season closed system stacked from the surface clear up to 200Mb over eastern CO with a stretched advection tongue wrapping around through NE screams cold-core for me. Though the timing is a bit uncertain the feature has been pretty consistent through recent runs.

If I were able, Sunday night would find me in one of Tucumcari's cheap motel rooms, rising early and planning on running ahead of the vort max through central-western KS to Kearney, NE.

I think you are still on the right track, David. What past event the GFS "looks like" seems to change with each successive run. However, the 03/19/09 12Z run is almost a dead ringer for the 10 April 2005 event in Kansas.

Per Mr. Davies, this was a classic cold core low...which produced several tornadoes in a narrow s-n corridor of north central/northwest KS. If this GFS run was a perfect forecast, I would position myself near Hays, KS Monday morning and be prepared to run north or even northwest as the shallow supercells developed along the occluded front. Pretty good chance to put a few more notches in your belt.

Which forum do you use Luke?
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Degeneration X
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 5:40 pm

slickjay12 wrote:
the TIT is loaded cheers cheers
Whoa that is more info than I needed to know.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 5:43 pm

Well if I cant get my snow give me the STORMS!!!! Im ready for them!!!!
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LukeTHr
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 5:46 pm

I read both stromtrack and skywarn. I think stormtrack is a better forum tho
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slickjay12
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 6:03 pm

Degeneration X wrote:
slickjay12 wrote:
the TIT is loaded cheers cheers
Whoa that is more info than I needed to know.

Tornado/Intercept/Truck T.I.T.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 7:39 pm

Do you have a pic of your TIT??
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Degeneration X
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 7:54 pm

wilkykav2 wrote:
Do you have a pic of your TIT??
I can upload a pic of my tit of you want me too. santa afro
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chiefsfan
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:05 pm

Degeneration X wrote:
wilkykav2 wrote:
Do you have a pic of your TIT??
I can upload a pic of my tit of you want me too. santa afro
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slickjay12
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:06 pm

TIT looks like this

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Ratzilla
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:19 pm

I hope it's nothing, but I have had a strange sense of dread over the upcoming storm season for a couple months. I don't want to say what I feel, but there's just an odd sense of catastrophic destruction coming our way, and I do mean "our" way.
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wilkykav2
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:21 pm

I thought it would look more like this..........

lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! lol!
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:23 pm

I think it will be bad myself,and I think since our winter was not to bad our storms may be
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Ratzilla
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:32 pm

A good storm chaser vehicle should run ok, but it should be an old beater. Cause beat is what it's gonna get.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:35 pm

I am having the same feelings for about the last month Rat. I think that the four county region is going to get hit this year and towns this time not open ground
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:43 pm

Ratzilla wrote:
I hope it's nothing, but I have had a strange sense of dread over the upcoming storm season for a couple months. I don't want to say what I feel, but there's just an odd sense of catastrophic destruction coming our way, and I do mean "our" way.
I have a bad feeling you are right and I am scared.
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Ratzilla
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:45 pm

Yeah slickjay, I'm feeling like a big event in this immediate area too. Last year I had a sense of an active year and it was. This year I keep getting this feeling of something bad close to home. My sense is that an area town may never be the same. In plain words I feel like someone is getting a big hit. Not sure why I keep getting that feeling.
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slickjay12
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:48 pm

Just think Hace is WAY WAY overdue
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:33 pm

I'm having a "bad feeling" about this storm season too. We have been lucky for many years.....
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:16 pm

think good thoughts,think good thoughts,think good thoughts Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:55 pm

okay you guys have just scared the living piss out of me...i'm so petrified of storms...i didn't need 2 hear this already...especially starting sunday & monday
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slickjay12
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:58 pm

CountryGirl wrote:
okay you guys have just scared the living piss out of me...i'm so petrified of storms...i didn't need 2 hear this already...especially starting sunday & monday

tis the season
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:00 pm

i would rather have a fucking blizzard than thunderstorms/tornados...i don't have basement either...plus its just my 3yr old & me here in my home & really have nowhere 2 go...
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:00 pm

CountryGirl wrote:
okay you guys have just scared the living piss out of me...i'm so petrified of storms...i didn't need 2 hear this already...especially starting sunday & monday
I don't think they said all of that to scare you. It just means that you need to start planning now in case of severe weather.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:02 pm

Degeneration X wrote:
CountryGirl wrote:
okay you guys have just scared the living piss out of me...i'm so petrified of storms...i didn't need 2 hear this already...especially starting sunday & monday
I don't think they said all of that to scare you. It just means that you need to start planning now in case of severe weather.

oh i know...i just really hate this time of year...i'm usually prepared 4 this stuff, but it's still not enough 2 help w/ my phobia per sey
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:04 pm

CountryGirl wrote:
Degeneration X wrote:
CountryGirl wrote:
okay you guys have just scared the living piss out of me...i'm so petrified of storms...i didn't need 2 hear this already...especially starting sunday & monday
I don't think they said all of that to scare you. It just means that you need to start planning now in case of severe weather.

oh i know...i just really hate this time of year...i'm usually prepared 4 this stuff, but it's still not enough 2 help w/ my phobia per sey

you should come chasin' with me
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:05 pm

I have always wanted to go with those storm chasers. I just don't know if I would want to do it at night.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:07 pm

slick wrote:
you should come chasin' with me

fuck that shit...there is no way in hell...i can't even stand 2 drive in the rain
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:20 pm

Degeneration X wrote:
I have always wanted to go with those storm chasers. I just don't know if I would want to do it at night.

It sucks at night, especially when the weather service has rotation showing and you can't see crap, or someone spotting says they've spotted a tail coming down and the location they give is yours. Also sucks when you have to move but can't see where high water is flowing or when you know the wind and big hail hitting you might just be the beginning of much worse but there ain't no place to go. But it's alotta fun too. Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:33 pm

i hate chasing at night. even with the radar on the laptop running Grlevel3 software
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LukeTHr
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:46 pm

I don't think we are going to have the storms here like we did last year. The moisture patterns have kept us dry all winter and I think that is going to carry over thru the spring and summer. I think the bad storms will be southeast of here and some northwest of here, both by about 80 miles either way. I think we will be in a dry band between the 2 zones.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 12:09 am

noooooooooooooooooo no bad storms near hoxie!!

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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 12:10 am

It's coming Luke. Don't let a slow start or a dry winter catch you off guard. The late 80's presented us with both record snows and record dry heat. The winter and summer have very little to do with each other. It's how the jet streams move and warm weather jet stream movements are always different from the winter.

The weather service is saying the gulf moisture will be in place this weekend over the entire state with an unstable atmosphere. It may just be getting ready for the show to start.
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LukeTHr
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 12:45 am

either way, none of us can change it, I guess by the end of the summer we'll see who's guess was closest
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 2:27 am

I can't call mine a guess, though I can't really say it isn't either. Just an uneasy feeling that keeps setting in. I'd like to see us both be wrong and just have lots of nice rain to make the garden grow.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 8:04 am

Ratzilla wrote:
I can't call mine a guess, though I can't really say it isn't either. Just an uneasy feeling that keeps setting in.

That's just the arthritis setting in your old bones. Razz
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 8:13 am



Doesn't hurt to be ready, though.

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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 8:19 am

Aunt Hilda? That you?????
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 8:54 am

Hey Im ready!!! Lets get this party started.




With that being said, I hope everyone has a safe Stormy season. I never want anyone to get hurt, but Im so ready for SOME KIND of weather!!!!!!
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 9:33 am

Ratzilla wrote:
The late 80's presented us with both record snows and record dry heat. .
History repeats itself,right?Weather included??At the mall there's tons of 80's clothes,maybe I will get a dry summer Rolling Eyes lol!
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 10:44 am

wilkykav2 wrote:
Ratzilla wrote:
The late 80's presented us with both record snows and record dry heat. .
History repeats itself,right?Weather included??At the mall there's tons of 80's clothes,maybe I will get a dry summer Rolling Eyes lol!
Hey Wilky, have you seen the NEw HIgh top Skechers??? http://www.skechers.com/shoes-and-clothing/brands/hydee_hy-top/product/shortcakes_-_whiskers/wpkt/



I know, back to weather
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LukeTHr
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 11:37 am

wilkykav2 wrote:
Ratzilla wrote:
The late 80's presented us with both record snows and record dry heat. .
History repeats itself,right?Weather included??At the mall there's tons of 80's clothes,maybe I will get a dry summer Rolling Eyes lol!

we don't want dry conditions, we need the rain for the crops. without the rain our economy will be getting so much worse than it is now
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 12:14 pm

Talking about weather in the 80's this is one stormy night I will never forget. The tornado they talk about in this link was south of Phillipsburg and heading towards town but it drifted a little bit more east and went between Phillipsburg and Agra. If I remember correctly there was a few injuries from that tornado.

Linky Thingie
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 5:23 pm

suzyr wrote:
Ratzilla wrote:
I can't call mine a guess, though I can't really say it isn't either. Just an uneasy feeling that keeps setting in.

That's just the arthritis setting in your old bones. Razz

Ha ha. This is more of a spooky feeling. That feeling like something just ain't going to go right. Like when you know as soon as you get up that the whole day will suck and it does.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:02 pm

Yeah, that was my day. Didn't hear the alarm this morn. Basement flooded... again. Husband was bottling his beer and he spilled it all over the kitchen floor.


Lovely.
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:36 pm

jessks75 wrote:
wilkykav2 wrote:
Ratzilla wrote:
The late 80's presented us with both record snows and record dry heat. .
History repeats itself,right?Weather included??At the mall there's tons of 80's clothes,maybe I will get a dry summer Rolling Eyes lol!
Hey Wilky, have you seen the NEw HIgh top Skechers??? http://www.skechers.com/shoes-and-clothing/brands/hydee_hy-top/product/shortcakes_-_whiskers/wpkt/



I know, back to weather

Yep,they're super cute!!!!
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PostSubject: Re: Local Weather   Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:57 pm

Quote :

I think you are still on the right track, David. What past event the GFS "looks like" seems to change with each successive run. However, the 03/19/09 12Z run is almost a dead ringer for the 10 April 2005 event in Kansas.



Tornado Reports for April 10th 2005
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1900 6 W SCOTT STATE LAKE SCOTT KS 3868 10103 ON GROUND FOR ABOUT 2 MINUTES (DDC)
1925 1 N SCOTT STATE LAKE SCOTT KS 3869 10092 PUBLIC REPORT OF BRIEF TOUCHDOWN REPORTED TO LAW ENFORCEMENT (DDC)
2134 2 WSW WAKEENEY TREGO KS 3901 9992 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN AND WENT BACK UP, THEN TOUCHED DOWN AGAIN. NEAR MILE MARKER 124 ON I-70. PICKING UP DEBRIS. (DDC)
2148 4 SE WAKEENEY TREGO KS 3898 9983 (DDC)
2150 9 S OGALLAH TREGO KS 3885 9973 TORNADO SOUTH OF OGALLAH ON HWY 147 HEADING STRAIGHT NORTH. (DDC)
2156 6 S OGALLAH TREGO KS 3889 9973 LARGE TORNADO ON GROUND (DDC)
2157 2 NE CEDAR BLUFF TREGO KS 3880 9970 ROPE TORNADO ON GROUND FOR ABOUT A MINUTE.
2200 10 ESE SAINT PETER GRAHAM KS 3913 9992 TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 283 AND D ROAD. (GLD)
2207 1 W OGALLAH TREGO KS 3898 9975 TORNADO WITH DEBRIS CLOUD. CROSSING I-70. (DDC)
2259 4 W MILBERGER RUSSELL KS 3872 9899 (ICT)
2305 11 N OTIS RUSH KS 3869 9905 TORNADO WENT THROUGH FARMSTEAD. LITTLE BIT OF ROOF DAMAGE. GOOSENECK TRAILER PICKED UP AND SLAMMED INTO GROUND. TREES DAMAGED.
2306 10 SW RUSSELL RUSSELL KS 3879 9898 (ICT)
2312 5 W GREAT BEND BARTON KS 3836 9890 (ICT)
2324 2 E RUSSELL RUSSELL KS 3889 9882 ROPE TORNADO ON THE GROUND (ICT)
2324 6 W RUSSELL RUSSELL KS 3889 9897 REPORTED BY KRSL/KCAY (ICT)
2331 1 W RUSSELL RUSSELL KS 3889 9887 TORNADO STILL ON GROUND. REPORTED BY KSNW CHANNEL 3. (ICT)
2355 5 S WALDO RUSSELL KS 3905 9880 REPORTED BY KRSL/KCAY. (ICT)

_________________
I just don't cotton to all this. Too daggone many rules - Ernest T. Bass

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